Jonathan Gurwitz of the San Antonio Express-News has a piece in Sunday’s OpinionJournal that argues, basically, that the Republican hard line on immigration may send Texas the way of California — politically, that is. Though he sketches out a convincing picture of GOP troubles in Texas, I’m not sold on the connection with immigration policy. I am especially unconvinced by his parallel with California: Gurwitz writes, “What was once Reagan Country became a Democratic stronghold [and] GOP Gov. Pete Wilson’s get-tough approach to immigration was an undeniable factor.” But it wasn’t, really — the basic premises of that “get-tough approach” still commands super-majority support of all Californians in polls, nearly 15 years later. For example, a California-wide Field Poll from July ‘06 found that 80% favor a program to allow illegal immigrants who have been living in the US a number of years an opportunity to stay and apply for citizenship provided they have a job, learn English, and pay back taxes; 71% favor an increase in US Border Patrol agents; 60% favor “imposing stiff penalties” on those who hire illegal immigrants; 86% describe illegal immigration as a “serious” problem for California — and 58% describe it as “very serious.” Enforcing the law is never a losing issue.

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